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Central Appalachia Prosperity Project
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The Central Appalachia Prosperity Project is part of the Presidential Climate Action Project to develop policy recommendations on climate and energy security, with a focus on what the next President of the United States could accomplish using his or her executive authority. The Central Appalachian Project draws on the input of America's most innovative experts to produce policy and program recommendations that are sufficiently bold to expedite the region's transition to a clean energy economy. An important component of these recommendations has been better coordination of the efforts being made by all levels of government - federal, regional, state and local.
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Socioeconomics
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Socio-economic Projects
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Cerulean Warbler Forest Management Project
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The Cerulean Warbler project was initiated to allow the scientific and management communities to test forestry methods and use experimental harvesting of timber to enhance Cerulean Warbler habitat.
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Challenges in the conservation, rehabilitation and recovery of native stream salmonid populations: beyond the 2010 Luarca symposium
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– In May 2010, I chaired a session on challenges to salmonid conservation at the international symposium
‘Advances in the population ecology of stream salmonids’ in Luarca, Spain. I suggested that in addition to scientific challenges, a major challenge will be improving the links between ecologists, conservationists and policy makers. Because the Luarca symposium focused mainly on ecological research, little time was explicitly devoted to conservation. My objective in this paper is to further discuss the role of ecological research in informing salmonid conservation. I begin with a brief overview of research highlights from the symposium. I then use selected examples to show that ecological research has already contributed much towards informing salmonid conservation, but that ecologists will always be faced with limitations in their predictive ability. I suggest that conservation will need to move forward regardless of these limitations, and I call attention to some recent efforts wherein ecological research has played a crucial role. I conclude that ecologists should take urgent action to ensure that their results are availableto inform resource managers, conservation organisations and policy makers regarding past losses and present threats to native, locally-adapted salmonid stocks.
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Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin
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Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500-ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow-pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5-ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot’s 150-m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow-pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( x ̄ = 2646 stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium-diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow-pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow-pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow-pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic-level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.
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Climate Science Documents
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Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends
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The significant worldwide increase in observed river runoff has been tentatively attributed to the stomatal ‘‘antitranspirant’’ response of plants to rising atmospheric CO2 [Gedney N, Cox PM, Betts RA, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Stott PA (2006) Nature 439: 835– 838]. However, CO2 also is a plant fertilizer. When allowing for the increase in foliage area that results from increasing atmospheric CO2 levels in a global vegetation model, we find a decrease in global runoff from 1901 to 1999. This finding highlights the importance of vegetation structure feedback on the water balance of the land surface. Therefore, the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration does not explain the estimated increase in global runoff over the last century. In contrast, we find that changes in mean climate, as well as its variability, do contribute to the global runoff increase. Using historic land-use data, we show that land-use change plays an additional important role in controlling regional runoff values, particularly in the tropics. Land-use change has been strongest in tropical regions, and its contribution is substantially larger than that of climate change. On average, land-use change has increased global runoff by 0.08 mm/year2 and accounts for 50% of the reconstructed global runoff trend over the last century. Therefore, we emphasize the importance of land-cover change in forecasting future freshwater availability and climate.
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Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700 –1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation
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Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/ use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative ex-amination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.
atmospheric water balance climate change historical land-cover change monsoon rainfall
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Characterizing coal and mineral mines as a regional source of stress to stream fish assemblages
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Mining impacts on stream systems have historically been studied over small spatial scales, yet investigations over large areas may be useful for characterizing mining as a regional source of stress to stream fishes. The associations between co-occurring stream fish assemblages and densities of various “classes” of mining occurring in the same catchments were tested using threshold analysis. Threshold analysis identifies the point at which fish assemblages change substantially from best available habitat conditions with increasing disturbance. As this occurred over large regions, species comprising fish assemblages were represented by various functional traits as well as other measures of interest to management (characterizing reproductive ecology and life history, habitat preferences, trophic ecology, assemblage diversity and evenness, tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance and state-recognized game species). We used two threshold detection methods: change-point analysis with indicator analysis and piecewise linear regression. We accepted only those thresholds that were highly statistically significant (p 0.01) for both techniques and overlapped within 5% error. We found consistent, wedge-shaped declines in multiple fish metrics with increasing levels of mining in catchments, suggesting mines are a regional source of disturbance. Threshold responses were consistent across the three ecoregions occurring at low mine densities. For 47.2% of the significant thresholds, a density of only 0.01 mines/km2 caused a threshold response. In fact, at least 25% of streams in each of our three study ecoregions have mine densities in their catchments with the potential to affect fish assemblages. Compared to other anthropogenic impacts assessed over large areas (agriculture, impervious surface or urban land use), mining had a more pronounced and consistent impact on fish assemblages. Threshold analysis Fish functional traits Landscape influences Game fishes Mining Rivers
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Chiapas/Appalachian/Pacific Alliance
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Many of the bird species that breed in the AMJV spend the fall and winter months in Mexico and Central and South America. Our partnership is committed to work with international partners to design and implement efficient and effective conservation projects for priority species on their migratory pathways and wintering areas.
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Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity
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Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where GCMs disagree. Although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near- term changes across more than 50% of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. By the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. Most far-term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities (;62%) occurs at mid- to high-latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities (;20%) is mainly in the tropics. Although our global models demonstrate that long-term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. This study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi-model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire-related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend.
Key words: climatic constraints; ensemble model uncertainty; flammability; global climate models (GCM); GCM agreement; global fire probabilities; resources to burn; spatial statistical models; species distribution models.
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Climate change and the ecologist
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The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 4 °C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a Grand Challenge in ecology.
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