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AMJV Partners Release Cerulean Warbler Best Management Practice Guide
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Cerulean Warbler management guidelines for enhancing breeding habitat in Appalachian forests have been released.
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News & Events
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Assemblage Time Series Reveal Biodiversity Change but Not Systematic Loss
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The extent to which biodiversity change in local assemblages contributes to global biodiversity
loss is poorly understood. We analyzed 100 time series from biomes across Earth to ask how diversity
within assemblages is changing through time. We quantified patterns of temporal a diversity, measured
as change in local diversity, and temporal b diversity, measured as change in community composition.
Contrary to our expectations, we did not detect systematic loss of a diversity. However, community
composition changed systematically through time, in excess of predictions from null models.
Heterogeneous rates of environmental change, species range shifts associated with climate change,
and biotic homogenization may explain the different patterns of temporal a and b diversity.
Monitoring and understanding change in species composition should be a conservation priority.
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Climate Science Documents
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Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach
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We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and- transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.
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Climate Science Documents
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Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally
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It is possible that anthropogenic climate change will drive the Earth system into a qualitatively different state1. Although different types of uncertainty limit our capacity to assess this risk 2, Earth system scientists are particularly concerned about tipping elements, large-scale components of the Earth system that can be switched into qualitatively different states by small perturbations. Despite growing evidence that tipping elements exist in the climate system1,3, whether large-scale vegetation systems can tip into alternative states is poorly understood4. Here we show that tropical grassland, savanna and forest ecosystems, areas large enough to have powerful impacts on the Earth system, are likely to shift to alternative states. Specifically, we show that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration will force transitions to vegetation states characterized by higher biomass and/or woody-plant dominance. The timing of these critical transitions varies as a result of between-site variance in the rate of temperature increase, as well as a dependence on stochastic variation in fire severity and rainfall. We further show that the locations of bistable vegetation zones (zones where alternative vegetation states can exist) will shift as climate changes. We conclude that even though large-scale directional regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems are likely, asynchrony in the timing of these shifts may serve to dampen, but not nullify, the shock that these changes may represent to the Earth system.
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Climate Science Documents
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Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
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Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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Climate Science Documents
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Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitats in the Appalachian Region: A Guide for Land Managers and Landowners
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This guide is intended to provide land managers and landowners with regional, habitat-specific strategies and techniques to begin developing and restoring habitat for Golden-winged Warblers. This document includes general information that applies to all habitat types in the Appalachian region and should be used along with supplemental documents dedicated to the management of specific regional habitat types (deciduous forests, minelands, abandoned farmlands, grazed forestland/montane pastures, utility rights-of-way, forest and shrub wetlands) most important to Golden-winged Warblers.
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Information Materials
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Fact Sheets
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Golden-Winged Warbler Appalachians Fact Sheets
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Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitat on Abandoned Farmlands in the Appalachians
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This is a supplemental document that provides information on managing abandoned farmlands in the Appalachians to develop and restore habitat for Golden-winged Warblers. This guide should be used in conjunction with the Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitats in the Appalachian Region, which includes general information that applies to all habitat types in the Appalachian region.
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Information Materials
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Fact Sheets
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Golden-Winged Warbler Appalachians Fact Sheets
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Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitat on Grazed Forestland and Montane Pastures in the Appalachians
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This is a supplemental document that provides information on managing grazed forestland and montane pastures in the Appalachians to develop and restore habitat for Golden-winged Warblers. This guide should be used in conjunction with the Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitats in the Appalachian Region, which includes general information that applies to all habitat types in the Appalachian region.
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Information Materials
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Fact Sheets
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Golden-Winged Warbler Appalachians Fact Sheets
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Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks
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A substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink, past and present, may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change rather than changes in forest management.
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Climate Science Documents
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Biotic Multipliers of Climate Change
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A focus on species interactions may improve predictions of the effects of climate change
on ecosystems.
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Climate Science Documents
