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Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?
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Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 . 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.
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Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift
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Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal–tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline.
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Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700 –1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation
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Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/ use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative ex-amination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.
atmospheric water balance climate change historical land-cover change monsoon rainfall
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Climate change-associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability
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Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long-term water availability has increased without apparent climate change-associated drought. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.
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Climatic change and wetland desiccation cause amphibian decline in Yellowstone National Park
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Amphibians are a bellwether for environmental degradation, even in natural ecosystems such as Yellowstone National Park in the western United States, where species have been actively protected longer than anywhere else on Earth. We document that recent climatic warming and resultant wetland desiccation are causing severe declines in 4 once-common amphibian species native to Yellowstone. Climate monitoring over 6 decades, remote sensing, and repeated surveys of 49 ponds indicate that decreasing annual precipitation and increasing temperatures during the warmest months of the year have significantly altered the landscape and the local biological communities. Drought is now more common and more severe than at any time in the past century. Compared with 16 years ago, the number of permanently dry ponds in northern Yellowstone has increased 4-fold. Of the ponds that remain, the proportion supporting amphibians has declined significantly, as has the number of species found in each location. Our results indicate that climatic warming already has disrupted one of the best-protected ecosystems on our planet and that current assessments of species’ vulnerability do not adequately consider such impacts.
global warming landscape change remote sensing amphibian community drought
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Clone history shapes Populus drought responses
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Just as animal monozygotic twins can experience different environmental conditions by being reared apart, individual genetically identical trees of the genus Populus can also be exposed to contrasting environmental conditions by being grown in different locations. As such, clonally propagated Populus trees provide an opportunity to interrogate the impact of individual environmental history on current response to environmental stimuli. To test the hypothesis that current responses to an environmental stimulus, drought, are contingent on environmental history, the transcriptome- level drought responses of three economically important hybrid genotypes—DN34 (Populus deltoides × Populus nigra), Walker [P. deltoides var. occidentalis × (Populus laurifolia × P. nigra)], and Okanese [Walker × (P. laurifolia × P. nigra)]—derived from two different locations were compared. Strikingly, differences in transcript abundance patterns in response to drought were based on differences in geographic origin of clones for two of the three genotypes. This observation was most pronounced for the genotypes with the longest time since establishment and last common propagation. Differences in genome-wide DNA methylation paralleled the transcriptome level trends, whereby the clones with the most divergent transcriptomes and clone history had the most marked differences in the extent of total DNA methylation, suggesting an epigenomic basis for the clone history-dependent transcriptome divergence. The data provide insights into the interplay between genotype and environment in the ecologically and economically important Populus genus, with implications for the industrial application of Populus trees and the evolution and persistence of these important tree species and their associated hybrids.
epigenetics | forest trees | poplar
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Columbia Water Center White Paper America’s Water Risk: Water Stress and Climate Variability
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The emerging awareness of the dependence of business on water has resulted in increasing awareness of the concept of “Water Risk” and the diverse ways in which water can pose threats to businesses in certain regions and sectors. Businesses seek to secure sustainable income. To do so, they need to maintain a
competitive advantage and brand differentiation. They need secure and stable supply chains. Their exposure risks related to increasing scarcity of water can come in a variety of forms at various points in the supply chain. Given increasing water scarcity and the associated deterioration of the quantity and quality of water sources in many parts of the world, many “tools” have been developed to map water scarcity riskor water risk. Typically, these tools are based on estimates of the average water supply and demand in each unit of analysis.Often, they are associated with river basins, while business is associated with cities or counties. They provide a useful first look at the potential imbalance of supply and demand to businesses.
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Comparative Drought Responses of Quercus ilex L. and Pinus sylvestris L. in a Montane Forest Undergoing a Vegetation Shift
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Different functional and structural strategies to cope with water shortage exist both within and across plant communities. The current trend towards increasing drought in many regions could drive some species to their physiological limits of drought tolerance, potentially leading to mortality episodes and vegetation shifts. In this paper, we study the drought responses of Quercus ilex and Pinus sylvestris in a montane Mediterranean forest where the former species is replacing the latter in association with recent episodes of drought-induced mortality. Our aim was to compare the physiological responses to variations in soil water content (SWC) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) of the two species when living together in a mixed stand or separately in pure stands, where the canopies of both species are completely exposed to high radiation and VPD. P. sylvestris showed typical isohydric behavior, with greater losses of stomatal conductance with declining SWC and greater reductions of stored non-structural carbohydrates during drought, consistent with carbon starvation being an important factor in the mortality of this species. On the other hand, Q. ilex trees showed a more anisohydric behavior, experiencing more negative water potentials and higher levels of xylem embolism under extreme drought, presumably putting them at higher risk of hydraulic failure. In addition, our results show relatively small changes in the physiological responses of Q. ilex in mixed vs. pure stands, suggesting that the current replacement of P. sylvestris by Q. ilex will continue.
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Conifer regeneration following stand-replacing wildfire varies along an elevation gradient in a ponderosa pine forest, Oregon, USA
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Climate change is expected to increase disturbances such as stand-replacing wildfire in many ecosystems, which have the potential to drive rapid turnover in ecological communities. Ecosystem recovery, and therefore maintenance of critical structures and functions (resilience), is likely to vary across environmental gradients such as moisture availability, but has received little study. We examined conifer regeneration a decade following complete stand-replacing wildfire in dry coniferous forests spanning a 700 m elevation gradient where low elevation sites had relatively high moisture stress due to the combination of high temperature and low precipitation. Conifer regeneration varied strongly across the elevation gradient, with little tree regeneration at warm and dry low elevation sites. Logistic regression models predicted rapid increases in regeneration across the elevation gradient for both seedlings of all conifer species and ponderosa pine seedlings individually. This pattern was especially pronounced for well-established seedlings (P38 cm in height). Graminoids dominated lower elevation sites following wildfire, which may have added to moisture stress for seedlings due to competition for water. These results suggest moisture stress can be a critical factor limiting conifer regeneration following stand- replacing wildfire in dry coniferous forests, with predicted increases in temperature and drought in the coming century likely to increase the importance of moisture stress. Strongly moisture limited forested sites may fail to regenerate for extended periods after stand-replacing disturbance, suggesting these sites are high priorities for management intervention where maintaining forests is a priority.
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Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948–2006
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Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the Pacific Northwest. Seventy-two percent of the stations showed significant (a = 0.10) declines in the 25th percentile annual flow, with half of the stations exceeding a 29% decline and a maximum decline of 47% between 1948 and 2006. Fewer stations showed statistically significant declines in either median or mean annual flow, and only five had a significant change in the 75th percentile, demonstrating that increases in variance result primarily from a trend of increasing dryness in dry years. The asymmetric trends in streamflow distributions have implications for water management and ecology well beyond those of shifted timing alone, affect both rain and snow-dominated watersheds, and contribute to earlier timing trends in high- elevation watersheds.
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