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Central Appalachian Climate Change Vulnerability Species Assessments
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These results are a compilation of climate change vulnerability assessments in the northern-most portion of the LCC, covering the area from New York south to West Virginia and Virginia, west to Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio.
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Vulnerability Assessment Foundational Data by Subregion
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Central Appalachian subregion climate change vulnerability species assessments Excel Spreadsheet
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These results are a compilation of climate change vulnerability assessments in the northern-most portion of the LCC, covering the area from New York south to West Virginia and Virginia, west to Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio. Results included are Byers and Norris 2011 (West Virginia); Furedi et al. 2011 (Pennsylvania), Ring et al. 2013 (New Jersey), Schlesinger et al. 2011 (New York); Virginia Division of Natural Heritage 2010 (Virginia). It also includes the results from species assessed as part of the current study (Sneddon et al. 2015).
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Vulnerability Assessment Foundational Data by Subregion
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Contemporary Evolution of Reproductive Isolation and Phenotypic Divergence in Sympatry along a Migratory Divide
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Understanding the influence of human-induced changes on the evolutionary trajectories of populations is a fundamental problem [1, 2]. The evolution of reproductive isolation in sympatry is rare, relying on strong selection along steep ecological gradients [3–7]. Improved wintering conditions owing to human activities promoted the recent establishment of a migratory divide in Central European blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) [8, 9]. Here, we show that differential migratory orientation facilitated reproductive isolation of sympatric populations within <30 generations. The genetic divergence in sympatry exceeds that of allopatric blackcaps separated by 800 km and is associated with diverse phenotypic divergence. Blackcaps migrating along the shorter northwestern route have rounder wings and narrower beaks and differ in beak and plumage color from sympatric south- west-migrating birds. We suggest that distinct wing and beak morphologies are ecomorphological adaptations resulting from divergent, multifarious selection regimes during migration. We hypothesize that restricted gene flow accelerates the evolution of adaptive phenotypic divergence toward the contrasting selection regimes. Similar adaptive processes can occur in more than 50 bird species that recently changed their migratory behavior [10, 11] or in species with low migratory connectivity. Our study thus illustrates how ecological changes can rapidly drive the contemporary evolution of ecotypes.
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Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges
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Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.
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Bergmann’s rule and climate change revisited: Disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population
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Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann’s rule—an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958–2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an ‘‘animal model’’ approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses.
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Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin
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Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500-ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow-pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5-ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot’s 150-m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow-pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( x ̄ = 2646 stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium-diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow-pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow-pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow-pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic-level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.
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Energetic and biomechanical constraints on animal migration distance
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Animal migration is one of the great wonders of nature, but the factors that determine how far migrants travel remain poorly understood. We present a new quantitative model of animal migration and use it to describe the maximum migration distance of walking, swimming and flying migrants. The model combines biomechanics and metabolic scaling to show how maximum migration distance is constrained by body size for each mode of travel. The model also indicates that the number of body lengths travelled by walking and swimming migrants should be approximately invariant of body size. Data from over 200 species of migratory birds, mammals, fish, and invertebrates support the central conclusion of the model – that body size drives variation in maximum migration distance among species through its effects on metabolism and the cost of locomotion. The model provides a new tool to enhance general understanding of the ecology and evolution of migration.
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Conservation Biology: Predicting Birds’ Responses to Forest Fragmentation
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Understanding species’ ecological responses to habitat fragmentation is critical for biodiversity conservation, especially in tropical forests. A detailed recent study has shown that changes in the abundances of bird species following fragmentation may be dramatic and unpredictable.
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Effects of drought on avian community structure
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Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioural traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most relevant, or how response varies geographically at broad spatial scales. Our goals were thus to determine (1) how avian abundance and species richness are related to drought, (2) whether community variations are more related to vegetation vigour or precipitation deviations and at what time periods relationships were strongest, (3) how response varies among avian guilds, and (4) how response varies among ecoregions with different precipitation regimes. Using mixed effect models and 1989–2005 North American Breeding Bird Survey data over the central United States, we examined the response to 10 precipitation- and greenness- based metrics by abundance and species richness of the avian community overall, and of four behavioural guilds. Drought was associated with the most negative impacts on avifauna in the semiarid Great Plains, while positive responses were observed in montane areas. Our models predict that in the plains, Neotropical migrants respond the most negatively to extreme drought, decreasing by 13.2% and 6.0% in abundance and richness, while permanent resident abundance and richness increase by 11.5% and 3.6%, respectively in montane areas. In most cases, response of abundance was greater than richness and models based on precipitation metrics spanning 32-week time periods were more supported than those covering shorter time periods and those based on greenness. While drought is but one of myriad environmental variations birds encounter, our results indicate that drought is capable of imposing sizable shifts in abundance, richness, and composition on avian communities, an important implica- tion of a more climatically variable future.
Keywords: abundance, birds, drought, Great Plains, greenness, mixed effects models, North American Breeding Bird Survey, precipitation, richness, United States
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Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change
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Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
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