Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology
We show that the phenology of vegetation activity changed severely (by more than 2 standard deviations in one or more dimensions of phe- nological change) on 54% of the global land surface between 1981 and 2012. Our analysis confirms previously detected changes in the boreal and northern temperate regions6–8. The adverse consequences of these northern phenological shifts for land-surface–climate feedbacks1 , ecosystems4 and species3 are well known. Our study reveals equally severe phenological changes in the southern hemisphere, where consequences for the energy budget and the likelihood of phenological mismatches are unknown. Our analysis provides a sensitive and direct measurement of ecosystem functioning, making it useful both for monitoring change and for testing the reliability of early warning signals of change14.
Publication Date: 2015
Credits: Nature Climate Change PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2 MARCH 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2533
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