Coherence between lake ice cover, local climate and teleconnections (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin)

Ice duration has shortened and the ice-off date has become earlier for Lake Mendota from 1905 to 2000 as air temperatures have warmed and snowfall has increased. In addition, the ice record has cyclic compo- nents at inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. We examined the frequency domain relations between ice, local climate and the teleconnections, Southern Ocean Oscillation (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Northern Pacific Index (NP), through a three-tiered analysis of coherence. The coherence results provide evidence of linear relations between the three levels at inter- annual and inter-decadal frequencies. Of the three local climate variables analyzed, namely temperature, snowfall and snow depth, temperature is the variable that most significantly affects ice duration and ice- off date, at both inter-annual and inter-decadal frequencies. The most significant effect of teleconnections on local climate are the effects of PDO on snowfall and snow depth, and SOI on temperature, at inter- annual frequencies, and the effect of NAO on snowfall at inter-decadal frequencies. The teleconnections that most significantly affect ice-cover duration and ice-off date, particularly at inter-decadal frequencies, are the PDO and the NAO. The influence of PDO on ice-cover appears to be transmitted through temper- ature, while the influence of the NAO appears to be transmitted through temperature and snowfall. A cas- cading set of links between teleconnections, local climate, and lake ice explain some, but not all, of the dynamics in these time series. Lake ice, Local climate change, Teleconnections, Time series analysis,